Montag, 22. September 2014

Hindi-Chini Buy-Buy

M.K. Bhadrakumar weist in der Asia Times auf eine ganze Reihe innen- und außenpolitischer Gründe hin, die den neuen indischen Ministerpräsidenten Narendra Modi dazu bewogen haben dürften, die Nähe Chinas stärker zu suchen und das Verhältnis zu den USA abzukühlen. Hier eine Auswahl:
* there has been an erosion of confidence in the Western economic system and the Washington Consensus (...)
the ideology prevalent in India (...) that the Western style institutions and governments are the key to development in emerging economies, itself got fundamentally tarnished
* And as time passes, it may become increasingly difficult for the Left to demonize him
[Modi], or for the Far Right to perform liturgical rites to this celebrant.
* Modi visualizes Asian partners to be much more meaningful interlocutors at this point in time for meeting India's needs. (...) The Chinese offer to invest US$50 billion in the first instance for the upgrade of the Indian railways speaks for itself.
* In the changed circumstances, strategic autonomy goes far beyond a matter of India's aversion toward 'bloc mentality'

In der Hindustan Times wird Modis Ansatz wesentlich skeptischer beurteilt. Aber auch hier heißt es abschließend:
While testing whether China’s moves towards us are strategic or tactical, we should seriously build synergies with it in areas where both sides benefit. (...) Hindi-Chini Bye Bye is not feasible, given the reality of our neighbour’s powerful international role today; Hindi-Chini Buy Buy is a reasonable objective for the Modi-Xi tandem to work for.
In seinem eigenen Blog Indian Punchline fasst Bhadrakumar die strategischen Interessen Chinas wie folgt zusammen:
a) Pakistan is not living up to China’s high expectations and is gripped with a death wish of its own making that it is unable to shake off; 
b) Chinese priorities in South Asia have changed and it is not in the business of putting a string of pearls around the Indian neck; 
c) and, China increasingly views India from a global perspective in terms of the emerging world order where the two countries pulling together would have much more gravitas than either would have on own steam.

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