Die größte Landreform Afrikas

Es gibt neue Belege dafür, dass die von Präsident Robert Mugabe gegen den Willen Londons erzwungene Landreform in Simbabwe längst nicht so erfolglos war, wie von den Mainstream Medien gerne dargestellt (vgl. MediaWatch 2011). Duncan Green fasst wichtige Aspekte einer Neuerscheinung (Amazon) zu dem Thema zusammen.

Zunächst einmal war der Landwirtschaftssektor nach der Unabhängigkeit des Landes bei weitem nicht so erfolgreich, wie immer dargestellt. Duncan Green fasst zusammen:

[A]t independence in 1980, 700,000 black farmers were squeezed onto 53% of the farmland, while 6,000 white farmers had 46% (and often the best land at that). Yet when Zimbabwe achieved majority rule, one third of white farmers were insolvent and a third were just about breaking even. Only 5% (300 people!) could be described as ‘very profitable’.

Bei der Bewertung der Erfolge einer Landreform muss man Zeit haben: Manchmal dauert es eine Generation, bis die Ergebnisse wirklich sichtbar werden. Zudem hat die fatale wirtschaftliche Lage des Landes (an der die Verweigerungshaltung des Westen großen Anteil hat) es den neuen Farmer zusätzlich schwer gemacht.

Das Fazit des Buches:

In the biggest land reform in Africa, 6,000 white farmers have been replaced by 245,000 Zimbabwean farmers. Zimbabwe’s land reform has not been neat, and huge problems remain. But 245,000 new farmers have received land, and most of them are farming it. They have raised their own standard of living; have already reached production levels of the former white farmers; and with a bit of support, are ready to substantially increase that production.

Auf der Sollseite stehen vor allem Abholzung und Probleme mit der Wasserversorgung. Zudem leben die etwa eine Million Farmarbeiter in Simbabwe meist unter erbärmlichen Bedingungen. Dennoch ist davon auszugehen, dass PolitikerInnen und Zivilgesellschaft der Nachbarländer (und vor allem Südafrika) die Entwicklung aufmerksam verfolgen.

"Dynamisches Unternehmertum"

Dass die teilweise gewaltförmig verlaufene Landreform in Simbabwe nicht die ökonomische Katastrophe ist, als die sie unsere Medien immer darstellen, hat jetzt die BBC zugegeben. Die Meldung geht auf eine Studie des britischen Institute for Development Studies zurück. Die Studie, die über 10 Jahre lief, kommt unter anderm zu folgenden Ergebnissen:

* While production of wheat, maize, tobacco, coffee and tea has declined, other crops such as small grains, edible beans and cotton have increased or remained steady. Overall it is a very mixed picture.
* A core group of 'middle farmers' - around half of the population in the Masvingo study areas - are generating surpluses from farming.
* There is substantial agricultural production on smallholder farms, with the majority producing enough to feed their families and sell to local markets in good rainfall years.
* Significant investment in the new land has included plots clearing, well digging and home building. In addition, schools have been built, roads cut and dams dug.
* New market connections are being forged, unleashing a dynamic entrepreneurialism in the rural areas.

Zehn Jahre ohne Kredit....

Das US-amerikansiche Wochenmagazin Newsweek hat ein Interview mit Gideon Gono, dem Vorsitzenden der Zentralbank von Simbabwe veröffentlicht. Gono, mitverantwortlich für die Hyperinflation in dem südafrikanischen Land, rechtfertigt darin seinen Kurs. Der Mediawatchblog bringt die wichtigsten Passagen:

Now the global economy is also going through a credit crunch. What do you make of that?
I sit back and see the world today crying over the recent credit crunch, becoming hysterical about something which has not even lasted for a year, and I have been living with it for 10 years. My country has had to go for the past decade without credit.


Your critics blame your monetary policies for Zimbabwe's economic problems.
I've been condemned by traditional economists who said that printing money is responsible for inflation. Out of the necessity to exist, to ensure my people survive, I had to find myself printing money. (...) Then the IMF asked the U.S. to please print money. I began to see the whole world now in a mode of practicing what they have been saying I should not.

Would you do anything differently if you had the last five years to do over again?
(...) I would also deal differently with the critics of our land-reform programs, and invest more in educating them. We were outwitted in the propaganda war. We didn't go out there to explain to the world how our war of liberation came about in the first place.


In November you shut down Zimbabwe's stock exchange. Will you open it again?
The stockbrokers were creating a money supply that wasn't there. I printed Z$1.5 quadrillion, but the exchange was operating with Z$100 sextillion. So I said, "Who is doing my job?" Unless there is more discipline and honor, the exchange will stay closed. I can't be bothered. I don't know when it'll open. It's a free market, a business which must be allowed to succeed or fail.


So will 2009 be a year of improvement or disaster?
It's got to be a good year. What keeps me bright and looking forward to every day is that it can't be any worse. And those who have studied the history of economies know that we are down, but that the only thing that can happen is we will move up. That is a certainty.

Den Hinweis auf das Interview verdanke ich Marginal Revolution, dem Blog von Tyler Cowen. Cowen ist Professor für Wirtschaftswissenschaften an der George Manson Universität in Faifax, Virginia.