Dani Rodrik hat weiter am Problem der nachholenden Entwicklung in den Zeiten der Globalisierung gearbeitet (MediaWatch berichtete). Er bietet eine interessante Erklärung für das Phänomen, warum die Niveaus von Einkommen und Industrialisierung in Entwicklungsländern auf den niedrigeren Niveaus verharren als angenommen. Rodrik macht folgende Bierdeckelrechnung auf:
Divide the world into two countries, one poor and the other rich. Let the rich country have a per-capita income level that is 10 times higher. Suppose that consumers in the poor country spend 20 percent of their income on manufactured goods, while the corresponding ratio in the rich country is 10 percent. So in the rich country, the demand shift away from manufactures has already gone quite some way. (...)
Now in autarky the poor country has to produce all the manufactures that the home consumers want. This means manufactures output amounts to 20 percent of poor country income.
Consider what happens when this country integrates with the rich country, and there is a single world market for manufactures. Suppose that the poor country holds 70% of the world’s population. And to rule out trade imbalances, suppose each country supplies a share of the world demand for manufactures that is equal to its share of global income.
It can be checked that this requires the share of manufacturing output in the poor country to fall to 11.9 percent – far below the 20 percent it could sustain in autarky. The rich country can sustain an identical level of industry (11.9 percent), up somewhat from its 10 percent.